Bitcoin's long-term momentum indicators are still positive despite recent downturn, Katie Stockton says
A recent sell-off in isn't changing one technical analyst's bullish long-term view on the cryptocurrency.
Katie Stockton of Fairlead Strategies said in a note on Monday that bitcoin's long-term outlook remains positive despite the recent volatility.
Bitcoin is down 30% from its record November high, but a relief rally helped the cryptocurrency recover some of its losses. That was until late Monday evening, when the world's most valuable cryptocurrency fell about 6% below the $50,000 level to $47,800 Tuesday afternoon.
Despite the back-and-forth action, bitcoin has managed to hold above its key support level at $44,200, Stockton observed, which represents a 61.8% fibonacci retracement level. Bitcoin's successful test of that level throughout December helped improve short-term momentum to neutral from bearish, according to the note.
But in the medium term, bitcoin's momentum remains weak and in bearish territory based on its weekly moving average convergence divergence (MACD) indicator. "But we would assume a neutral intermediate-term bias if the weekly stochastics crossover," Stockton said.
With a neutral short-term bias and a bearish intermediate-term bias, bitcoin remains in a choppy trading range with key short-term resistance between $54,600 and $55,600.
Still, bitcoin "remains solidly in a long-term uptrend... and our long-term gauges still point higher despite having down-ticked this month," Stockton said.
If bitcoin is able to decisively jump above its short-term resistance, its next target would be long-term resistance around $65,000, representing potential upside of 35% from current levels, according to the note.
Despite the recent sell-off, bitcoin is still up 64% year-to-date, and is up 693% since the stock market bottomed on March 23, 2020, as the COVID-19 pandemic took hold.Source