Why Peter Brandt Believes Bitcoin’s Downtrend Was Engineered
After a brutal weekend for the bulls, Bitcoin is yet to stabilize around the high area of its current levels. As of press time, BTC’s price trades at $48,727 with a 2% profit in the past 24 hours and a 14.9% loss during the past week.
Data from Material Indicators suggest Bitcoin (blue line below) has major support at $46,000 as over $26 million in bid orders (below the price in yellow) sit at this level. To the upside, BTC’s price has several levels of resistance at $50,000 and $51,500, as seen in the chart below.
Further data provided by Material Indicators suggest big players have been behind Bitcoin’s recent price action reacting to macro-economic factors. As seen below, the announcements made by the U.S. Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell last week almost immediately translated into movements in BTC’s order book.
JPow speech translated into pulled order + added resistance.Acknowledging rampant inflation means they won't continue to add to the problem (=> tapering).Market spoke.#BTC pic.twitter.com/vzoP2mLNDz— Material Scientist (@Mtrl_Scientist) November 30, 2021
The chart above also shows high levels of resistance at $70,000 and support at $50,000, the range BTC’s price was stuck in until this past Friday. Over the past week, there have been several bid and ask orders place in a fashion attribute to large and institutional players, according to Material Indicators.
This coincides with QCP Capital’s speculation that a whale or institutional players were bringing down Bitcoin’s rally as it moved into the $60,000 area.
Another veteran trader Peter Brandt seems to share the same thesis. Via his Twitter account, Brandt showed the image below to demonstrate that BTC’s price recent downtrend saw significantly less selling volume than during May’s crash from $65,000 to $30,000. The legendary trader added:
We have not seen the type of panic selling volume that characterizes market bottoms. Not that such volume spikes are necessary, but to date the volume profile more resembles a bear trend engineered by big operators.
More Blood In Bitcoin’s Future? Why The Crypto Market Could Have Changed
Still trading above $40,000, selling pressure could still increase to retest the support in the $30,000, leading to another consolidation phase as the one experienced after May’s crash.
For the time being, the crypto market sits at high uncertainty as the violent moved needs time to settle in. This goes against the expectations of those waiting for BTC to behave similarly to 2013 and 2017.
At that time, Bitcoin did a massive rally into December that preceded a multi-year bear market. However, new market participants could be changing its dynamics. Thus, affecting the inner cycles that are embedded into veteran operators.
As a consequence of adoption by institutions, Bitcoin seems to be more susceptible to their influence. Pantera Capital CEO Dan Tapiero and analyst William Clemente stand amongst that believe BTC’s market dynamics have changed.
Have talked about this for a while but really think there’s a good chance 4yr cycles are over. Why? The type of market participants we now have. Could very well see rounded tops/bottoms from now on. Invalidation would be having a blowoff top, would then expect prolonged bear.— Will Clemente (@WClementeIII) December 6, 2021