Ark Invest Research Director Predicts $200 Trillion Innovation Market By 2030

Ark Invest Research Director Predicts $200 Trillion Innovation Market By 2030

Brett Winton, who serves as director of research at Cathie Wood’s Ark Invest, predicted a $200 trillion innovation market by 2030 as artificial intelligence, robotics, energy storage, gene sequencing and blockchain technology create a “unique moment in technological economic history.”

Speaking last week at a Forbes/SHOOK regional conference in Boston, Winton spoke bullishly about these transformative innovations that are set for a decade of exponential growth, highlighting that this trend is already underway.

The innovation market held $7 trillion in market capitalization at the end of 2019. Spurred on by the upheaval of Covid-19, that number doubled to $14 trillion by the end of 2020, according to his calculations. Ark is looking to align its investments with that expected innovation growth and feels many investors aren’t well positioned on that front.

“As a general principle, investors are unintentionally short innovation to a degree that they probably don't appreciate,” Winton says.

Acknowledging that this nine figure forecast is larger than the global equity market capitalization, he attributed the outsize expansion to productivity advances. Winton cited robo-taxis, which he sees as the largest productivity advancement in history, even more than the steam engine.

“Historians will look back on this decade and be amazed that all of these things were happening at the same time,” Winton says. “What's especially interesting about these innovations to us is that they compound and amplify each other.”

To substantiate these bullish views, Winton cited the last seven years of work done at Ark and how many of their prognostications that were seen as aggressive ended up seeming conservative in retrospect. Ark and Wood were famously bullish on Tesla and Bitcoin and have thus far seemed prescient with those bets.

Winton first met Wood 15 years ago when the pair worked at AllianceBernstein and joined her in 2014 when she set up her own shop.

On stage in Boston he shared similarly lofty expectation for cryptocurrency, predicting that Bitcoin will have a total value of $20 trillion within the next decade. It currently has a combined market value just over $1 billion.

Adding that most other tokens are less predictable, he thinks there is reason to believe that Bitcoin will be 50% of the crypto market, meaning all other coins will have a combined $20 trillion in value. He expects cryptocurrencies to supplant a reasonable portion of the gold market capitalization as an inflation hedge, pointing to increased market entry by allocators and corporates beginning to add digital assets to their balance sheets.

Winton sees blockchain miners as a poor investment as that function is set to be commoditized but extolled the value of digital wallets such as Coinbase and Square which will be integral not only for buying and selling but use of digital assets.

Source