Could A Bitcoin ETF Set A New BTC Price Top? Top Analyst Thinks So
Bitcoin has been taking the spotlight in the crypto market as it makes its way back into previous highs. Beyond the recent volatile weekend to the upside, something seems to be brewing in favor of the BTC bulls, for the time being.
In a post called “The Next Price Era”, the CEO of Pantera Capital Dan Morehead analyzed the latest developments in the Bitcoin market. Especially, the post focused on trying to trace the next BTC’s price top as the cryptocurrency potentially enters a new phase in its market cycles.
In previous cycles, the Bitcoin halving had a bigger impact on the price of the network’s underlying asset, as seen below. That influence has been reducing over time with the latest post halving rally peaking on April 14th at 64,863 less than 440 days after that event.
The post claims that each Bitcoin halving changes the stock-to-flow ratio and has a decreasing impact on BTC’s price. Pantera Capital adds:
Each subsequent halving’s impact on price will likely taper off in importance as the ratio of reduction in the supply of new bitcoins from previous halvings to the next decreases.
The Next Bitcoin Price Cycle
Due to the reduced influence of the halving, the participation of institutional investors, the increase in total market cap, Bitcoin could have different cycles. The latest peaked in April 2021 as mentioned, and the cryptocurrency could be entering a new bull market, as Pantera Capital said.
As a consequence, Bitcoin could become a more stable asset with fewer pronounced drawbacks, but with fewer profits. The 83% bear market could be “a thing of our primordial past”, the post said, but also the 100x returns. In that sense, BTC’s price is still on route to $100,000.
High Chances Of A Bitcoin ETF To Receive Approval In The U.S. On Q4, 2021
Each time a cycle has peaked, there has been a big event related to the traditional finance world. The latest cycle reached its top when crypto exchange Coinbase debuted in the stock market, before that it was the launch of the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) Futures which marked the 2017 peaked at $20,089.
Next, a Bitcoin ETF approval by the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) in the U.S., a decision expected to be announced in Q4, 2021, could mark the current market cycle top. Pantera Capital made the following warning to investors:
Will someone please remind the day before the bitcoin ETF officially launches? I might want to take some chips off the table.
As Bitcoinist reported, a Bitcoin ETF seems very likely to be approved according to Bloomberg experts James Seyffart and Eric Balchunas. They believe there is a 75% chance that the SEC will finally greenlight this investment instrument in the U.S.
However, the first Bitcoin ETF to be approved in the U.S. could track a derivatives product based on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange. SEC Chair Gary Gensler seems more inclined to take this option as he believes that a derivates-based BTC ETF has more protection for the consumers.
The coming months will be decisive for BTC and its investors and could demonstrate whether a change has taken place in the market dynamics. At the time of writing, BTC trades at $57,492 with a 4.6% profit in the daily chart.Source