Bitcoin Futures ETF by October? Analyst Predicts Why Ether ETF Withdrawal is Good News
VanEck and ProShares recently filed with the SEC to withdraw their Ethereum ETF applications just weeks after filing for their Bitcoin Futures ETF. Over the past couple of weeks, nearly half a dozen firms have filed for a Bitcoin Strategy ETF that offers investment in BTC futures products. The sudden rise in filing comes on the heels of SEC chief Gary Gensler indicating that a Futures ETF has higher chances of getting the commission’s approval than those that offer physical Bitcoin investment options.
Bloomberg ETF analyst Eric Balchunas was among the first to point towards the incoming surge in Bitcoin Futures ETF filing. In a new note issued on Tuesday, Balchunas said that the withdrawal of Ether ETF indicates SEC “has a nose in this” right now. He also pointed out that these firms have also filed for a Bitcoin Strategy ETF whose status is still active. He predicted that SEC could approve the first Bitcoin Futures ETF by October end after the mandatory 75-day launch window.
“We think Ether withdrawal shows SEC has a nose in this rn and is in reg contact with issuers which should mean any kinks ironed out so that they can launch 75 days after filing. Further, ProFunds’ bitcoin MF was launched 77 days after filing. These are virtually the same thing.”
New note out today from @JSeyff re how the Ether ETF withdrawals adds to likelihood that a bitcoin futures ETF will be launched by end of October with ProShares as favorite, altho it could (and arguably should) be a group to avoid first mover advantage. pic.twitter.com/zXFFgmEHw6— Eric Balchunas (@EricBalchunas) August 24, 2021
Will the US see its First Bitcoin ETF by Year-End?
2021 was believed to be the year when the US SEC would approve the first Bitcoin ETF, but going by the SEC chief’s comments towards the crypto market along with the call for stricter investor protection laws indicated otherwise. In a recent interview, Gensler said that the SEC has no exact timeline on when it could approve the first crypto ETF product, but it would come with strict rules.
Balchunas said ProShares could become the first to get SEC’s nod but chances are the regulatory body would approve more than one application to curb first-mover advantage. James Seyffart, another prominent ETF analyst said that if their prediction about Bitcoin ETF is correct, then SEC could approve an Ether Futures ETF by the first quarter of 2022.
BTC futures dwarf ETH futures open interest in $$ terms currently. But we think that as open interest and volume climb and if Bitcoin futures ETF operate without issues it probably wont be long before we see ETH ETFs. Likely 1H 2022 if our 4Q 2021 BTC ETF prediction is correct. pic.twitter.com/m3wwovSyCr— James Seyffart (@JSeyff) August 24, 2021