Blockchain Bites: Will Bitcoin See ‘Reflexive’ Buys After Tesla?
Nic Carter argued that comparing bitcoin’s energy consumption to Visa’s is missing the forest for the trees. Bitcoin isn’t just a payments network, but a self-contained monetary system that proposes its own unit of account, he argued live on CoinDesk TV.
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1. Tesla’s $1.5 billion bitcoin gambit could have a long tail. Bitcoin saw record single-day dollar growth after news broke Tesla replaced a fraction of its U.S. dollar treasury with the cryptocurrency. Bitcoin rose more than $8,000, setting a new ceiling above $48,000 early today. The rally has made bitcoin, with an estimated $834.2 billion market cap, more valuable than all but seven of the world’s publicly traded companies.
But it’s not just bitcoin. Ether, the native currency of the Ethereum blockchain, also set a record high of $1,824.59 in early Tuesday trading, pushing its market capitalization above $200 billion.
2. Legacy banks are taking note of the cryptocurrency industry. An investment analyst added New York-based Signature Bank to JPMorgan’s “focus list,” a list of recommended investable products, saying the blockchain-friendly bank is “positioned to ride the crypto wave.”
3. Open systems are politically neutral, a point that could raise eyebrows. According to a United Nations reckoning, North Korea funded its wartime footing – including its nuclear and ballistic missile programs – through cryptocurrency hacks.
What to do with all this cash?Tesla investing in bitcoin is a sea-change moment for the cryptocurrency industry. After the much-hyped auto company disclosed its $1.5 billion bitcoin buy, the obvious (and unknowable) question became “who’s next?”
Indeed, U.S. corporations are sitting on a vast trove of cash. According to Moody’s Investors Service, nonfinancial firms had a stockpile of $2.1 trillion in U.S. dollars last June. While companies could pay down debt, invest in U.S. Treasury bonds or even go on an M&A spree, there’s a certain logic to keeping a war chest:
“Obviously, cash provides excellent insurance in times of escalating uncertainty. It insulates firms from risk in the financial markets, ensuring the ability to fund critical projects and compete strategically in their product market,” Kristine W. Hankins and Mitchell Petersen, finance professors at the University of Kentucky and Kellogg School of Management, respectively, wrote in the Harvard Business Review.
Crypto-heads, including former acting chief of the OCC Brian Brooks, would deny some of these claims, especially amid a period of intense monetary expansion Just yesterday, Brooks said bitcoin could be a more stable source of value. He noted the U.S. money supply increased 25% in 2020.
Even if you’re not an inflation-doomer, this pace of money creation certainly raises questions about what to do with all this corporate cash. It was a question the Royal Bank of Canada implicitly raised yesterday, when weighing in on the Tesla phenomenon.
According to analysts at Canada’s largest bank’s brokerage division, Apple should consider the crypto. With a $2.3 trillion market capitalization, Apple is among the world’s most valuable firms. It is also sitting on close to $200 billion in cash.
RBC analysts said a natural move would be for the company to spin up its own crypto exchange. The firm already provides payment and digital wallet services, has a trusted reputation and a research department that could crack long-standing know-your-customer (KYC) challenges.
Plus, the analysts estimate, a crypto exchange could bring in $40 billion a year. (That’s estimated from extrapolating from Square’s bitcoin revenues, and an assumption about 15% of Apple’s existing 1.5 billion install base would play around with the new feature.)
“If Apple went down this path the U.S.A. would likely acquire the most crypto assets from a global perspective,” the analysts wrote.
Indeed, increased competition among crypto exchanges might be welcome. Yesterday, a surge in users following the Tesla news caused interruptions among some of the most prominent exchanges.
While the crypto infrastructure has improved notably since the last bull market – with large entities able to be counterparties to billion-dollar bitcoin trades without any significant market disruption, as Castle Island Ventures partner Nic Carter noted on CoinDesk TV this morning – there’s still work to be done.
Commenting on the exchange outages yesterday, eToro Managing Director Guy Hirsch said fiat to crypto trades introduce liquidity and settlement risks between banks and exchanges.
The risks are less severe for “pure” crypto to crypto exchanges, Hirsch noted.
Maybe there’s a lesson there for companies sitting on dollar stockpiles?