Bitcoin On-Chain Data Signals A Long Squeeze Brewing In Futures Market
On-chain data shows the Bitcoin open interest is sharply rising, a sign that a long squeeze may be brewing in the crypto futures market.
Bitcoin Open Interest Has Observed Rise Recently, While Funding Rates Remain Positive
As pointed out by an analyst in a CryptoQuant post, the futures market may be heading towards a long squeeze in the near future.
The “open interest” is an indicator that measures the total amount of Bitcoin futures positions currently open on derivatives exchanges. It includes both long and short positions.
An increasing value of the metric suggests users are opening more positions right now. Such a trend can lead to higher volatility in the crypto’s price.
On the other hand, a lowing open interest can mean positions on exchanges are closing down. A rapid swing in the price can cause a mass liquidation, sharply taking the indicator’s value down.
These liquidations cascade together, amplifying the price move. Such an event is called a long or short liquidation “squeeze” (depending on the direction of the price change).
Now, here is a chart that shows the trend in the Bitcoin funding rates over the past couple of weeks:
As you can see in the above graph, the Bitcoin open interest has observed a significant increase in the last few days.
The chart also includes the data of another indicator, the “funding rates.” This metric measures the periodic fee that futures traders have to pay each other.
A positive value shows there are more long traders in the market at the moment as they are paying a premium to keep their positions.
On the contrary, a negative value implies a short sentiment is dominant right now. Looking at the graph, it seems like the Bitcoin funding rate is positive currently.
This means that most of the recent increase in the open interest has to be because of new long positions opening.
Historically, a very high open interest has usually resulted in a liquidation squeeze. Since longs are dominant right now, a long squeeze is probable if the price observes a steep decline.
At the time of writing, Bitcoin’s price floats around $30.5k, up 1% in the last seven days. Over the past month, the crypto has lost 21% in value.
The below chart shows the trend in the price of the coin over the last five days.Source